Oscar Picks

Before you read this, just remember that Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book are trash and if you like them, you have awful taste and/or are not capable of analytical thinking.

Okay, carry on.

Best Picture:

“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”

Will Win:  Roma

Should Win:  The Favourite

I’m hoping for “Roma” because I doubt “The Favourite” is going to win, and there’s some sneaky momentum for “Green Book” that makes me very nervous.  “Roma” is a great achievement that really needed to be seen on the big screen, but “The Favourite” had everything I want in a movie and I have no idea how it lost momentum so quickly.

Lead Actor:

Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Will Win:  Christian Bale

Should Win:  Christian Bale

*Full Disclosure:  Even though BR is disgusting, I can’t help loving Rami since I’ve been #TeamRobot from the jump, and though he has said some truly stupid things on the press tour for the movie, he’s also an up-and-coming actor at the mercy of a studio who hired a rapist to direct his film, so if he wins, I’ll be very conflicted about it.

Lead Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Will Win:  Glenn Close

Should Win:  Olivia Colman

I won’t be upset if Glenn wins because it’s been a long time coming, but she’s done far better in far better films.  Hopefully this gives her a bit of a career resurgence so she can take on roles with directors who actually know how to make a movie.

Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Will Win:  Mahershala Ali

Should Win:  Sam Elliott

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Will Win:  Regina King

Should Win:  Rachel Weisz

I won’t be mad at all if King wins, because she was wonderful, but Weisz is someone I have never, ever been a fan of and wow did she make me a believer.

Director:

Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Adam McKay, “Vice”

Will Win:  Spike Lee

Should Win:  Yorgos Lanthimos

This is another “Lifetime Achievement” possibility, and again, I’ll be very happy if Spike Lee wins, but he’s made better movies, and “The Favourite” was a true vision from beginning to end.  Cuarón could also be an upset.

Animated Feature:

“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman

Will Win:  Incredibles 2

Should Win:  Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Adapted Screenplay:

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Will Win:  A Star Is Born

Should Win:  Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Original Screenplay:

“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay

Will Win:  The Favourite

Should Win:  The Favourite

Cinematography:

“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique

Will Win:  Roma

Should Win:  Roma

Best Documentary Feature:

“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Will Win:  Minding the Gap

Should Win:  Won’t You Be My Neighbor? –Oh Wait, they didn’t nominate it.  I’m cool with “Minding the Gap” taking it then.

Best Foreign Language Film:

“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)
“Roma” (Mexico)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)

Will Win:  Roma

Should Win:  Roma

Film Editing:

“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Vice,” Hank Corwin

Will Win:  The Favourite

Should Win:  The Favourite

Sound Editing:

“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Will Win:  Roma

Should Win:  Black Panther

Production Design:

“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Will Win:  Roma

Should Win:  Black Panther

Original Score:

“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Will Win:  Mary Poppins Returns

Should Win:  Mary Poppins Returns

Original Song:

“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Will Win:  Shallow

Should Win:  Shallow

Makeup and Hair:

“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Vice”

Will Win:  Mary Queen of Scots

Should Win:  Mary Queen of Scots

Costume Design:

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne

Will Win:  The Favourite

Should Win:  The Favourite

Visual Effects:

“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”

Will Win:  Avengers: Infinity War

Should Win:  Avengers:  Infinity War